Examining Kim Jong-un’s New Year Speeches

2020

The 2020 speech was mostly about reinforcing juche (self-reliance) and announcing that North Korea was done negotiating: for now.

Kim repeatedly mentions the need to create a nation that is self-reliant while blaming the US for the perils the country faced.

He said that the US had applied the most brutal and inhuman sanctions against our state and posed a persistent nuclear threat to it over the past seven decades by labelling it as their enemy, part of the “axis of evil” and a “target of preemptive nuclear strike,” and that the current situation on the Korean peninsula has reached a more dangerous and serious phase owing to the US policy of hostility to the DPRK.

Kim then argued that North Korea had kept its end of the bargain for years, while the US prepared a hostile takeover of the country.

In the past two years alone when the DPRK took crucial measures first to stop nuclear test and ICBM test fire and shut down the nuclear testing ground in order to build confidence with the US, he said, the latter, far from responding to the former with appropriate measures, threatened it militarily by conducting dozens of big and small joint military drills which its president personally promised to discontinue and by shipping latest war equipment into south Korea and adopted over a dozen independent sanctions measures, only to show once again before the world that it remains unchanged in its wild ambition to stifle our system.

Because of this, Kim announced that “the DPRK has found no grounds to be unilaterally bound any longer by the commitment with no other party to honour, and this has put a damper on its efforts for disarmament and the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons across the world.” This effectively ended any negotiations.

Kim promised a hardening of its US policy through self-development and self-reliance.

“As we already made clear, the prevailing situation proves that the road of defending ourselves by building up our strength sufficiently enough to keep the hostile forces at bay so that they would not dare to threaten our sovereignty and security is the only path we should follow without suspension and hesitation.“

Although North Korea has shown no sign of effectively ending its nuclear program, Kim declares that due to hostile US policy, there will never be the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. This puts all the blame on the US.

Kim announced a new weapon was being developed too. However, he also opens room for negotiation while not sounding too keen. The scope and depth of the buildup of defensive capabilities will depend on the future approach of the US – meaning, it is Washington’s choice to make.

Since this speech serves as both a domestic and international message, the domestic message is that North Korea remains ever committed to defending its people. The international message is that unless the US commits, Pyongyang will not commit.

An interesting departure from previous years is that “war” is not mentioned explicitly. This means Pyongyang does not want to escalate tensions to the point where war is a realistic option (like in 2018).

Clearly, North Korea will continue testing missiles and reinforcing their defensive capabilities. It will be up to the United States to compromise on some things, most importantly, denuclearization.

Past talks have proven that denuclearization is not an option for North Korea. If the US wants to continue supporting South Korea and ensure peace in the Asia-Pacific, it may have to agree to a freeze, rather than CVID (complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization).

It will be interesting to see where US-North Korea relations are in 2021, and what Kim will have to say in his next new year speech.

Image: Shealah Craighead (via Twitter)