Disclaimer: This special edition is based on my own views and not the views of my employer.
(Last updated September 27, 2024)
Election Results (Live Updates):
Run-off (around 3:30 PM)
Winner needs 208 votes
| Candidate | Diet Member Votes | Prefectural Votes | Total Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Takaichi Sanae (1) | 173 | 21 | 194 |
| Ishiba Shigeru (2) | 189 | 26 | 215 |
First Round (around 2:20 PM)
Winner needs 369 votes
| Candidate | Diet Member Votes | Local Member Votes | Total Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kobayashi Takayuki | 41 | 19 | 60 |
| Ishiba Shigeru | 46 | 108 | 154 |
| Kono Taro | 22 | 8 | 30 |
| Hayashi Yoshimasa | 38 | 27 | 65 |
| Motegi Toshimitsu | 34 | 13 | 47 |
| Koizumi Shinjiro | 75 | 61 | 136 |
| Takaichi Sanae | 72 | 109 | 181 |
| Kamikawa Yoko | 23 | 17 | 40 |
| Kato Katsunobu | 16 | 6 | 22 |
Thank you to anyone who reads this weekly newsletter!
This is a special edition for the 2024 LDP presidential election, a consequential election that will determine the fate of the ruling party as it gears up for a general election immediately after the presidential race. Prime Minister Kishida Fumio served three years as leader and made the decision to step down in an attempt to rehabilitate the party’s image, which was damaged by the political fundraising scandal.
This will hopefully be a great resource, which will be updated regularly, to keep track of the candidates and the policy positions each has on key issues. It will be organized as follows:
1. Election Structure
2. Candidate Profiles
3. Candidate Support
4. Candidate Policy Positions
5. Candidate Policy Documents
6. Poll Numbers
7. Helpful Links
Hopefully this is a good resource that helps wrap your head around all that’s been going on! Please contact me via email (rintaro.nishimura@gmail.com) or Twitter (@RinNishimura) if you have any inquiries or if there is anything that seems to be missing.
Don’t forget to follow this blog and my Twitter account–happy reading!!
Election Structure
The LDP presidential election officially kicked off on September 12. For the next 15 days — the longest campaign period under current rules — the candidates will debate and deliver speeches about policy in an attempt to be named the new party leader on September 27.
The schedule flows as follows:
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| September 12 | Election campaign period begins |
| September 13 | Joint press conference |
| September 14 | Debate hosted by the Japan National Press Club |
| September 14-20 | Stump speeches and debates in 8 locations across the country |
| September 22-24 | Policy debates |
| September 26 | Deadline for party member vote |
| September 27 (2 PM start) | Election day for Diet members *Results out by 3:15-30 PM? |
The election rules will also stipulate that a lottery system will be used to determine the run-off candidates if 1) two or more candidates finish in second place or 2) three or more candidates finish with the same number of votes.
Candidate Profiles
A record number of nine candidates (five was highest prior to this cycle) will be competing to become the next leader of Japan. It is a mix of rising stars and veterans who all have an envisioned plan for the country. Without factions, it will be difficult to determine which candidates will garner bloc support from the new “policy groups” and other fixed group voting blocs. Given the number of candidates, no one is likely to get to a majority in the first round, meaning political maneuvering and coalition building in the run-off will matter in determining the eventual winner.
Candidate Support
Spreadsheet of candidate support (direct and indirect voicing of support)
Each candidate occupies a specific position within the spectrum of the party. He/she will have to bring together a coalition across the spectrum to be the eventual winner. At the moment, three so-called “kingmakers” exist — Prime Minister Kishida, LDP Vice President Aso Taro, and ex-prime minister Suga Yoshihide. Aso and Suga have publicly backed Kono Taro and Koizumi Shinjiro, respectively, while Kishida keeps his cards close to his chest as he considers who to back in the eventual run-off. The conservative Abe faction — now defunct and the root of problem in the slush fund scandal — would have normally been a huge bloc vote but is now splintered following the death of ex-prime minister Abe Shinzo and the political scandal. This is bad news for the conservative candidates — Takaichi Sanae and Kobayashi Takayuki — who must actively seek to bring in more moderate Diet members to support their bids.
One possible scenario that seems to be growing in possibility is a run-off between Ishiba and Takaichi (as of September 23). In such a case, most candidates would likely throw their support behind Ishiba, while Kobayashi would join Takaichi as the two more conservative candidates. However, many candidates’ backers are likely to split voting between the two run-off candidates, though Ishiba is still likely to win more of them over given his more moderate views. As for kingmakers, Suga will likely back Ishiba, while Aso is likely to back Takaichi, as he has issues with both Ishiba and Suga. The race to a majority would be challenging to predict, though the deciding factor will likely be the moderate vote (Kishida/Motegi/Nikai factions) similar to 2021. In that race, the moderate sided with Kishida over Kono, giving him the edge in the run-off.
On September 12, the twenty Diet members endorsing each candidate were disclosed. The endorsements highlight which part of the spectrum supports each candidate.
Some useful stats below (some embedded tweets):
Full endorsement list below (with short bios for each candidate pulled from Sankei):
Candidate Policy Positions
The following tables compare candidate policies in six areas: political reform, economy, foreign policy, defense, economic security, and energy. The policies were taken from the policy documents below. Candidate remarks in debates have not been included given some uncertainty over whether those statements are official positions of the candidates. In contrast, policy documents have been carefully drafted by the candidates and serve as the authoritative document on policies.
Candidate Policy Documents
The policy documents for all nine candidates can be found below. Sources are either official campaign websites or documents handed out during their respective press conferences.
Poll Numbers
Regular Polls
Note: Jiji and NHK polls were not comparable to past polls given questions were different.
Yomiuri (9/14-15): Viewed as most accurate tally given the outlet got ahold of the LDP’s local member vote tally.
LDP Diet Member/Party Member Survey
Total
Nikkei (calculated from Sept. 13-15 survey)
Diet Member
Party Member/Supporters
Mainichi (9/12-24)
- Ishiba Shigeru: Close to 100 votes
- Koizumi Shinjiro: Close to 80 votes
- Takaichi Sanae: Close to 70 votes
Other Surveys
Tokyo Shoko Research Survey of Japanese Businesses (9/4-9; 5,921 businesses)
QUICK September Monthly Survey of Financial Market Actors (9/3-5)
Nikkei/CNBC Investor Survey (9/2-8)
Access to Endorsement Lists on Nikkei Online (9/12)
Helpful Links
LDP Presidential Election Official Website
NHK page for LDP Presidential Election (check live vote count)
Rep. Kobayashi Takayuki Campaign Website
Rep. Ishiba Shigeru Campaign Website
Rep. Kono Taro Campaign Website
Rep. Hayashi Yoshimasa Campaign Website
Rep. Motegi Toshimitsu Campaign Website
Rep. Koizumi Shinjiro Campaign Website
Rep. Takaichi Sanae Campaign Website
Rep. Kato Katsunobu Campaign Website
Rep. Kamikawa Yoko Campaign Website
–Rintaro Nishimura
Image: Captain76 (CC BY-SA 3.0)
Rintaro Nishimura 
This is a fantastic resource – thank you very much Rintaro for your outstanding work and contribution!
Romain
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Thank you Romain!
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